Welcoming the New Year: Peaks of Peril, Plains of Promise for Nepal

Earlier in 2024, my office started a newsletter hoping to connect with well-wishers across the world. This was expected to be issued every few months, but the exigencies of a peripatetic political life intervened, and we could not. I am pleased that we are now resuming this endeavor with a pledge to be more regular.  This issue focuses on the climate crisis, drawing on thoughts I gathered to present at multiple sideline forums during the 29^th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Baku, Azerbaijan in November 2024. 

Peaks of Peril, Plains of Promise: Nepal’s Climate Challenges

As we close the eventful year of 2024, I extend my warm wishes for health and happiness to you and your loved ones. The turning of the calendar invites us to take a moment to reflect and renew—an opportunity to reconnect with our roots and reaffirm our collective commitment to the future well-being of Nepal. 

This year, Nepal stands at a crossroad, grappling with the escalating impacts of climate change while holding onto the hope for a sustainable and resilient future. As we face the pressing realities of climate change, the story of Nepal unfolds as one of both immense challenge and inspiring resilience. In recent months, devastating floods across the country, exacerbated by climate change, serve as a stark reminder of the fragility of our environment and the urgency of collective action. In this newsletter, I focus on climate change—an existential issue that transcends borders and generations. Nepal’s unique ecology not only positions us at the frontline of the climate crisis, but also gives us the opportunity to lead.

2025 must be a year we step up—COP30 (UN’s climate conference) will take place in Brazil where in 1992 the landmark UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), also known as the Earth Summit resulted in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Nepal’s Recent Climate Shocks: Lessons from the Mountains

In 2024, Nepal faced some of its most devastating climate-related disasters, underscoring the vulnerability of its ecosystems and communities. On August 16, a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in the Everest region swept through the village of Thame, displacing 135 people and destroying 25 homes, a health post, a hydroelectric plant, and a vital bridge. The floodwaters traveled over 85 kilometers downstream along the Dudhkoshi River, wreaking havoc along its path far beyond the point of origin. This tragedy stemmed from a glacial lake no larger than an Olympic swimming pool—one not even considered high risk. Alarming still, only five of the 200 potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) are currently monitored.

A month later, In September, Nepal faced its heaviest post-monsoon rainfall in 54 years, with 323 millimeters recorded in just 24 hours. The flood claimed 250 lives, displaced thousands, and caused $346 million in economic losses. World Weather Attribution (WWA) links this intensified rainfall to climate change, which has made such events 10% stronger and 70% more likely. Poor urban planning and a lack of preparedness continues to further exacerbate the devastation.

Between 2017 and 2021, Nepal lost over 2% of its GDP (national output) annually due to climate-induced disasters. By 2030, this figure could rise to 5%. 

The chart above highlights the impact of various natural hazards affecting Nepal from 1980 to 2020, demonstrating the increasing frequency and intensity of disasters such as floods, landslides, and earthquakes.

The Himalayas, warming faster than global averages, are at the forefront of climate change. Elevation-Dependent Warming and regional pollutants like black carbon are accelerating glacial melting, threatening water supplies for billions. Even if global warming is limited to the 1.5°C target, the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is projected to experience disproportionate warming, with temperature increases of 0.3°C in the HKH and 0.7°C in the northwest Himalayas. 

These events are not just wake-up calls but a rallying cry for immediate action—stronger monitoring, better planning, and greater investments in climate resilience.

From Policy to Action: Empowering Communities

Nepal’s ability to confront escalating climate challenges lies in harmonizing modern governance frameworks with its deeply rooted community-based resilience.  The National Climate Change Policy (2019), which has committed 80% of climate finance to the local level, exemplifies how governance can empower grassroots solutions. This decentralization not only empowers local level decision-making but also integrates modern climate strategies with indigenous knowledge systems that have sustained communities for centuries. 

Nepal’s community forestry program is an outstanding example of this amalgamation. Once plagued by deforestation, community-led initiatives have transformed local forests into thriving ecosystems. Covering 45% of Nepal’s territory, community forests are a global success story, providing livelihoods, sequestering carbon, and serving as natural buffers against floods and landslides. These efforts are further supported by the Local Adaptation Plans of Action (LAPA), which empower 753 local governments to craft climate strategies, blending local expertise with broader national policies.

Confronting Costs

This synthesis is not without challenges. The cost of climate adaptation by 2030 is estimated at $47 billion—far exceeding the country’s average annual GDP. The funding gap for Nepal’s adaptation needs at the national and the local level stands at 85%, Even if funds are available, institutional challenges limit Nepal’s ability to utilize them effectively. Fragmented policies (NDCs, NAPs, NBSAPS, INFFs and sector plans), and the absence of system-wide economic thinking approaches also hinder the development of bankable climate projects.

Despite the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund at COP28, Nepal and other vulnerable nations face significant challenges in scaling, accessing and utilizing these resources. At the recent COP29 in Baku, I emphasized that 97% of Nepal’s climate funding needs rely on external sources. This dependence highlights a deeper issue: the need for regional collaboration and stronger global partnerships to support countries like Nepal.

Strategizing for Climate Preparedness: Bridging Gaps

Amid escalating climate shocks, a proactive approach is vital to mitigate risks and safe’uard Nepal's future. An emerging consensus highlights the critical need for pre-agreed, pre-financed, and rules-based mechanisms to enhance preparedness.

1. Bridging the Action Gap: The first foundational step is to strengthen institutional frameworks and integrate climate priorities into development planning. Agencies such as the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) must align efforts across forestry, finance, agriculture, and energy to enhance disaster preparedness and response. Local capacity development is critical, as they are the first responders. This necessitates investments in multi-hazard early warning systems and a focus on operational excellence to ensure effective implementation at all levels.

2. Closing the Knowledge Gap: The second step is to address climate risks through a comprehensive understanding of systemic, non-linear, and transboundary challenges. Effectively balancing ex-ante (preventative) and ex-post (reactive) risk management strategies relies strongly on robust data collection and analysis. Disaster risk reduction should be integrated into national curricula, urban planning frameworks, and infrastructure standards. Leveraging advanced digital tools and fostering public-private partnerships can enhance disaster preparedness, ensuring gender-sensitive and multi-sectoral strategies are at the core.

3. Tackling the Governance Gap: The third step is reforms in international financial and investment architectures that are critical in meeting the scale of climate challenges. Outdated aid systems with rigid cycles and inefficiencies must be replaced by agile, direct funding mechanisms like the Loss and Damage Fund. These mechanisms can seamlessly integrate climate adaptation into national development strategies, fostering more responsive and effective solutions. Sustainable financing must be bolstered through innovative mechanisms like blended finance, carbon taxes, and international tax reforms to close the significant funding gap. 

Uniting Beyond Borders: Global Synergies for Nepal’s Climate Fortitude

The Himalayas, often referred to as the “Third Pole,” store the largest amount of frozen water outside the Arctic and Antarctic. They feed ten major river systems, including the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Mekong, providing sustenance to nearly 2 billion people across South and Southeast ’sia.

Nepal's unique position in the Himalayan region places it at the center of ecological and hydrological systems that cross national boundaries. Therefore, the challenges Nepal faces—melting glaciers, black carbon pollution, and erratic monsoons—cannot be solved in isolation. Climate risks do not respect the man-made borders. Solutions are therefore inherently transboundary, demanding collective solutions.

The ecological interconnectedness of the region demands collaborative management of shared resources. Regional agreements on water sharing, disaster preparedness, and air quality management could mitigate risks while fostering trust and cooperation. For example, shared protocols for monitoring glacial lakes and managing river basins can prevent catastrophic floods while securing livelihoods downstream.

Achieving Nepal’s climate goals, one of them being net zero by 2045, requires innovative financing mechanisms. Blended finance—combining public and private investments—can fund large-scale adaptation projects, while policies like carbon taxes, financial transaction taxes, and wealth taxes can generate sustainable revenue streams.

Real progress requires collective action. With varied power dynamics, shared data protocols, regional climate funds, and derisked decarbonization efforts can balance these power asymmetries. The responsibility of protecting the Himalayas is beyond Nepal’s: it is a global imperative.

The need to address climate change in Nepal cannot be overstated. Escalating disasters, fragile ecosystems, and resource challenges pose significant threats, but they also present opportunities for innovation, collaboration, and leadership.

Nepal's resilience and tradition of community-led initiatives offer a foundation for progress. Together, we can turn challenges into opportunities, transforming peaks of peril into plains of promise.

Memories from Baku

In Azerbaijan, I engaged in a series of high-level events and bilateral meetings on Nepal’s critical challenges, including the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund and transboundary climate risks. A notable highlight was an informal session where Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs, the globally renowned Columbia  academic, who made a personal connection to his student. Do watch:

https://www.facebook.com/31526/videos/pcb.10115986562472451/974828694661567

Additional resources

https://www.facebook.com/swarnim.wagle

https://www.linkedin.com/in/swarnimwagle/

https://x.com/SwarnimWagle

• This newsletter is prepared by The Office of Swarnim Wagle, MP.